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Brazil Juniors vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
River Plate
River Plate
5/31/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brazil Juniors32%
×Draw19%
River Plate48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil Juniors
2.00
River Plate
2.45

River Plate creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

creates per match

Brazil Juniors
1.68
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

Brazil Juniors
2.95
River Plate
2.33

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw
52%
Brazil Juniors or River Plate
81%
Draw or River Plate
68%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
17%
River Plate wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
86%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
59%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
32%
River Plate 1+ goals
91%
River Plate 2+ goals
70%
River Plate 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
40%
River Plate (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.68 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

River Plate attack 1.95 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more
32%
level
19%
River Plate scores more
48%

River Plate at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Brazil Juniors 2–4 River Plate

River Plate beat Brazil Juniors 4-2 in Division di Honor on May 31, 2026.