River Plate 4–1 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

F. Colidio 90+1'

M. Meza 73'

M. Borja 38'

L. González 24'

F. Nicola 11'

9/14/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

River Plate51%

×Draw24%

Atletico Tucuman25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.12

River Plate

1.69

Atletico Tucuman

1.12

River Plate creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.96

creates per match

1.45

0.79

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

River Plate

1.96

Atletico Tucuman

1.45

allows per match

River Plate

0.79

Atletico Tucuman

1.42

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

River Plate-0.04on par

Atletico Tucuman-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

75%

River Plate or Atletico Tucuman

76%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

49%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

27%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

82%

River Plate 2+ goals

50%

River Plate 3+ goals

24%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

31%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

67%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 12 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.96 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.45 + River Plate defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

River Plate scores more

51%

level

24%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

25%

River Plate at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Borja

River Plate · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

F. Nicola↳ R. Tesuri

24'

L. González↳ I. Fernández

25'

A. Sanchez

38'

M. Borja

45+2'

R. Tesuri

46'

M. Estigarribia← L. Rodríguez

63'

N. Castro← G. Acosta

63'

M. Coronel← M. Bajamich

68'

G. Peruzzi← M. Brandán

69'

M. Lanzini← I. Fernández

70'

F. Colidio← C. Echeverri

73'

M. Meza

78'

R. Melo← A. Sánchez

79'

F. Gattoni← G. Pezzella

79'

R. Villagra← M. Kranevitter

85'

M. Casco← M. Acuña

90+1'

F. Colidio↳ M. Borja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverAtletico

Overview

61%Possession39%

27Total Shots11

3.12Expected Goals (xG)1.38

11Corners4

7Fouls12

Shots

27Total Shots11

10On Target1

8Off Target7

9Blocked3

17Inside Box5

10Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

471Total Passes310

369Accurate Passes195

78%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

0.43Goals Prevented0.43

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1