Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate — League #1032 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Atletico Tucuman26%
River Plate43%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
River Plate creates 40% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Tucuman ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches
River Plate away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Tucuman attack 0.63 + River Plate defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81
River Plate attack 1.00 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
River Plate at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Lanus
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
Belgrano Cordoba
Argentinos JRS
Estudiantes L.P.River Plate
Huracan
Barracas Central
TigreAtletico Tucuman
Independ. Rivadavia
Platense
Union Santa Fe
Central Cordoba de SantiagoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico Tucuman host River Plate on Thursday, 15 February 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the League #1032 2026/2027 season.
League #1032: Atletico Tucuman 0–0 River Plate
Atletico Tucuman and River Plate drew 0-0 in League #1032 on February 15, 2024.
River Plate controlled possession (70%) and registered 7 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.