Atletico Tucuman 2–0 River Plate: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

River Plate

L. Diaz 68' (pen)

C. D. Ferreira Namandu 12'

9/21/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atletico Tucuman34%

×Draw29%

River Plate37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Atletico Tucuman

1.06

River Plate

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

1.44

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.44

River Plate

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.00

River Plate

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

63%

Atletico Tucuman or River Plate

71%

Draw or River Plate

66%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

13%

River Plate wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

9%

River Plate 1+ goals

67%

River Plate 2+ goals

30%

River Plate 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

48%

River Plate (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.44 + River Plate defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.06

River Plate attack 1.22 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

34%

level

29%

River Plate scores more

37%

River Plate at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. D. Ferreira Namandu

Atletico Tucuman · D

8.2

Match Events

9'

Leandro DíazGoal cancelled

12'

C. D. Ferreira Namandu↳ L. Godoy

39'

Matías Mansilla

62'

S. Lencina← J. Quintero

62'

J. Portillo← Giuliano Galoppo

62'

T. Acosta← Agustin De la Cuesta

63'

K. Lopez← L. Godoy

68'

L. DiazPenalty

69'

J. Meza← M. Galarza

75'

B. Dadin← F. Colidio

78'

M. Villa← D. Martinez

78'

R. Ruiz← N. Lamendola

88'

G. Abeldano← M. Bajamich

89'

G. Acosta← L. Diaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoRiver

Overview

34%Possession66%

17Total Shots18

1.59Expected Goals (xG)0.60

10Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots18

8On Target3

7Off Target8

2Blocked7

13Inside Box4

4Outside Box14

Passing

34%Possession66%

251Total Passes489

180Accurate Passes397

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.49Goals Prevented0.49

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0