Newington Youth vs Moyola Park

Newington Youth

CANC

00:00

Moyola Park

3/20/2020

League #561 · Round 19Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Newington Youth42%

×Draw23%

Moyola Park36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newington YouthExpected goals in this matchMoyola Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.65

Newington Youth

1.79

Moyola Park

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

1.55

creates per match

1.48

1.82

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Newington Youth

1.55

Moyola Park

1.48

allows per match

Newington Youth

1.82

Moyola Park

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Moyola Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw

64%

Newington Youth or Moyola Park

77%

Draw or Moyola Park

58%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+

22%

Moyola Park wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals

83%

Newington Youth 2+ goals

53%

Newington Youth 3+ goals

26%

Moyola Park 1+ goals

81%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

49%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)

54%

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.55 + Moyola Park defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Moyola Park attack 1.48 + Newington Youth defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Newington Youth scores more

42%

level

23%

Moyola Park scores more

36%

Newington Youth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff