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Newington Youth vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
FT
5 – 2
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
4/9/2022League #561League #561 · Round 21Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Newington Youth38%
×Draw22%
Moyola Park40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newington Youth
1.73
Moyola Park
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

creates per match

Newington Youth
1.44
Moyola Park
1.53

allows per match

Newington Youth
2.00
Moyola Park
2.03

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw
60%
Newington Youth or Moyola Park
78%
Draw or Moyola Park
62%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+
19%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals
82%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
52%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
25%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
83%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
53%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)
49%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.44 + Moyola Park defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.73

Moyola Park attack 1.53 + Newington Youth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Newington Youth scores more
38%
level
22%
Moyola Park scores more
40%

Moyola Park at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newington Youth vs Moyola Park

Newington Youth beat Moyola Park 5-2 in League #561 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Solitude in Belfast.