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Moyola Park vs Newington Youth — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
FT
0 – 1
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
3/23/2019Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 18Mill Meadow (Castledawson (Caisleán Dhásain))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park59%
×Draw21%
Newington Youth20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
2.07
Newington Youth
1.10

Moyola Park creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
3.47
Newington Youth
1.33

allows per match

Moyola Park
0.87
Newington Youth
0.67

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
80%
Moyola Park or Newington Youth
79%
Draw or Newington Youth
41%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
36%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
87%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
61%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
34%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
67%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
30%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
75%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 3.47 + Newington Youth defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.07

Newington Youth attack 1.33 + Moyola Park defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Moyola Park scores more
59%
level
21%
Newington Youth scores more
20%

Moyola Park at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Moyola Park 0–1 Newington Youth

Newington Youth beat Moyola Park 1-0 in Premier Intermediate League on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Mill Meadow (Castledawson (Caisleán Dhásain)).