Rilski Sportist 0–2 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Rilski Sportist

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Sofia II

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rilski Sportist3%

×Draw27%

CSKA Sofia II70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.13

1.35

Rilski Sportist

0.13

CSKA Sofia II

1.35

CSKA Sofia II creates 938% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.25

creates per match

1.20

1.50

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

0.25

CSKA Sofia II

1.20

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.50

CSKA Sofia II

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No91
Yes9

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–131%

0–221%

0–39%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (31%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

30%

Rilski Sportist or CSKA Sofia II

73%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

97%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

0%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

12%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

1%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

0%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

5%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

5%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 0.25 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.13

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.20 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

3%

level

27%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

70%

CSKA Sofia II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff