Rilski Sportist 1–1 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Rilski Sportist

FT

1 – 1

CSKA Sofia II

8/6/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rilski Sportist45%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

Rilski Sportist

1.58

CSKA Sofia II

1.27

Rilski Sportist creates 24% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.44

1.10

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

1.72

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.10

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

69%

Rilski Sportist or CSKA Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

55%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

23%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

79%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

47%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

21%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

36%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

59%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

45%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

31%

Rilski Sportist at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff