CSKA Sofia II 4–2 Rilski Sportist: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia II

FT

4 – 2

Rilski Sportist

11/25/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II61%

×Draw22%

Rilski Sportist17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.91

CSKA Sofia II

1.94

Rilski Sportist

0.91

CSKA Sofia II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 129 away

2.15

creates per match

1.07

0.74

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II

2.15

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II

0.74

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw

83%

CSKA Sofia II or Rilski Sportist

78%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

39%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

37%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

86%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

58%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

30%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

60%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

23%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

78%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more

61%

level

22%

Rilski Sportist scores more

17%

CSKA Sofia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff