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Rilindja 1974 vs Liria Prizren — Liga E Pare 2025

Rilindja 1974
Rilindja 1974
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
8/16/2025Liga E PareLiga E Pare · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rilindja 197428%
×Draw26%
Liria Prizren46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilindja 1974
1.11
Liria Prizren
1.50

Liria Prizren creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rilindja 1974
1.29
Liria Prizren
1.59

allows per match

Rilindja 1974
1.41
Liria Prizren
0.94

finishing

Rilindja 1974+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilindja 1974 ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rilindja 1974 or draw
54%
Rilindja 1974 or Liria Prizren
74%
Draw or Liria Prizren
72%

Winning margin

Rilindja 1974 wins by 2+
11%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rilindja 1974 1+ goals
67%
Rilindja 1974 2+ goals
30%
Rilindja 1974 3+ goals
10%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
78%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
44%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rilindja 1974 (draw refunded)
38%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilindja 1974 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilindja 1974 attack 1.29 + Liria Prizren defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Liria Prizren attack 1.59 + Rilindja 1974 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rilindja 1974 scores more
28%
level
26%
Liria Prizren scores more
46%

Liria Prizren at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Liria Prizren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga E Pare: Rilindja 1974 1–3 Liria Prizren

Liria Prizren beat Rilindja 1974 3-1 in Liga E Pare on August 16, 2025.