Liria Prizren 2–2 Rilindja 1974: Result & Stats

Liria Prizren

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rilindja 1974

12/6/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Liria Prizren51%

×Draw25%

Rilindja 197424%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liria PrizrenExpected goals in this matchRilindja 1974

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.00

Liria Prizren

1.57

Rilindja 1974

1.00

Liria Prizren creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

0.00

2.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Liria Prizren

1.40

Rilindja 1974

0.00

allows per match

Liria Prizren

2.00

Rilindja 1974

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Rilindja 1974+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Rilindja 1974 →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw

76%

Liria Prizren or Rilindja 1974

75%

Draw or Rilindja 1974

49%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+

26%

Rilindja 1974 wins by 2+

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals

79%

Liria Prizren 2+ goals

46%

Liria Prizren 3+ goals

21%

Rilindja 1974 1+ goals

63%

Rilindja 1974 2+ goals

26%

Rilindja 1974 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)

68%

Rilindja 1974 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Rilindja 1974 away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 1.40 + Rilindja 1974 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rilindja 1974 attack 0.00 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Liria Prizren scores more

51%

level

25%

Rilindja 1974 scores more

24%

Liria Prizren at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Liria Prizren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff