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Liria Prizren vs Rilindja 1974 — Liga E Pare 2025

Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rilindja 1974
Rilindja 1974
11/22/2025Liga E PareLiga E Pare · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Liria Prizren68%
×Draw20%
Rilindja 197412%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liria Prizren
2.06
Rilindja 1974
0.73

Liria Prizren creates 182% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Liria Prizren
1.94
Rilindja 1974
0.71

allows per match

Liria Prizren
0.76
Rilindja 1974
2.18

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par
Rilindja 1974+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Rilindja 1974 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw
88%
Liria Prizren or Rilindja 1974
80%
Draw or Rilindja 1974
32%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+
43%
Rilindja 1974 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals
87%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
61%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
34%
Rilindja 1974 1+ goals
52%
Rilindja 1974 2+ goals
17%
Rilindja 1974 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
85%
Rilindja 1974 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Rilindja 1974 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 1.94 + Rilindja 1974 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rilindja 1974 attack 0.71 + Liria Prizren defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Liria Prizren scores more
68%
level
20%
Rilindja 1974 scores more
12%

Liria Prizren at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Liria Prizren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liria Prizren vs Rilindja 1974

Liria Prizren beat Rilindja 1974 2-0 in Liga E Pare on November 22, 2025.