Ried vs Austria Lustenau — League #219 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Ried50%
Austria Lustenau23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ried creates 65% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ried ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ried at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches
Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ried attack 1.30 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40
Austria Lustenau attack 0.80 + Ried defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Ried at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Floridsdorfer AC
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Salzburg
Admira Wacker
Rapid Wien II
First Vienna
SKN ST. PoltenAustria Lustenau
SKU Amstetten
Austria Vienna (Am)
FC Liefering
SV Kapfenberg
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Sturm Graz II
WSPG Wels
StripfingIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Ried host Austria Lustenau on Monday, 21 April 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #219 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Ried vs Austria Lustenau
Ried and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in League #219 on April 21, 2025.
Goals: M. Große (40'), William Rodrigues (45').
Ried controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 9.
The match was played at Innviertel Arena in Ried Im Innkreis.