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Ried vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

Ried
Ried
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
M. Maak 74' (OG)
C. Lang 57'
D. Madritsch 49'
B. Beganovic 20'
M. Cheukoua 90+3'
L. Fridrikas 41', 6' (pen)
Y. Diaby 36'
4/29/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 5josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ried44%
×Draw26%
Austria Lustenau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried
1.48
Austria Lustenau
1.19

Ried creates 24% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ried
1.33
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

Ried
1.47
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

Ried+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ried or draw
70%
Ried or Austria Lustenau
74%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
56%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+
21%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals
77%
Ried 2+ goals
43%
Ried 3+ goals
19%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
70%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
33%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)
59%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.33 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Ried defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ried scores more
44%
level
26%
Austria Lustenau scores more
30%

Ried at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
L. FridrikasAustria LustenauAustria Lustenau · F
8.0

Match Events

5'
Darijo GrujcicPenalty confirmed
6'
L. FridrikasPenalty
11'
Matthias Maak
16'
Adriel
20'
B. Beganovic
31'
Michael Martin
36'
Y. Diaby↳ L. Fridrikas
41'
L. Fridrikas↳ H. Guenouche
46'
T. Berger← H. Guenouche
49'
D. Madritsch
55'
David Ungar
57'
C. Lang↳ S. Chabbi
62'
N. Motika← Adriel
62'
D. Tiefenbach← C. Türkmen
64'
M. Gragger← D. Ungar
74'
M. MaakOwn goal
76'
Dániel Tiefenbach
77'
L. Mikić← B. Beganovic
78'
A. Schmid← L. Fridrikas
78'
M. Cheukoua← Y. Diaby
87'
L. Kronberger← C. Lang
87'
M. Ziegl← M. Lackner
90+3'
M. Cheukoua↳ A. Schmid

Possession

41%Ried

Shots

8Ried

Pass accuracy

45%Ried

Statistics

RiedAustria
Overview
41%Possession59%
8Total Shots8
9Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots8
5On Target4
2Off Target2
1Blocked2
7Inside Box5
1Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
285Total Passes412
181Accurate Passes318
64%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Bundesliga: Ried 4–4 Austria Lustenau

Ried and Austria Lustenau drew 4-4 in Bundesliga on April 29, 2023.

Goals: L. Fridrikas (6' pen, 41'), B. Beganovic (20'), Y. Diaby (36'), D. Madritsch (49'), C. Lang (57'), M. Maak (74' o.g.), M. Cheukoua (90+3').

Austria Lustenau controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.