Austria Lustenau 1–1 Ried: Result & Stats

Austria Lustenau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ried

S. Diarra 20'

M. Große 31' (pen)

10/18/2024

League #219 · Round 10ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Austria Lustenau35%

×Draw32%

Ried33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria LustenauExpected goals in this matchRied

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.93

Austria Lustenau

0.95

Ried

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

0.75

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Austria Lustenau

1.00

Ried

1.11

allows per match

Austria Lustenau

0.75

Ried

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Ried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw

67%

Austria Lustenau or Ried

68%

Draw or Ried

65%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

13%

Ried wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

61%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

25%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

7%

Ried 1+ goals

61%

Ried 2+ goals

24%

Ried 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

51%

Ried (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Ried away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.00 + Ried defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ried attack 1.11 + Austria Lustenau defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more

35%

level

32%

Ried scores more

33%

Austria Lustenau at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Pius Grabher

16'

A. Van Wyk← W. Eza

20'

S. Diarra↳ A. Baallal

31'

M. GroßePenalty

33'

48'

50'

62'

67'

67'

68'

70'

Rafael Devisate← D. Au Yeong

77'

I. Ouattara← S. Diarra

85'

N. Čelić← M. Große

90+2'

Nemanja Čelić

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AustriaRied

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots16

4Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target5

2Off Target7

2Blocked4

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1