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Ried vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

Ried
Ried
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
J. Wießmeier 20'
7/30/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 2josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ried44%
×Draw26%
Austria Lustenau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried
1.48
Austria Lustenau
1.19

Ried creates 24% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ried
1.33
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

Ried
1.47
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

Ried+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ried or draw
70%
Ried or Austria Lustenau
74%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
56%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+
21%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals
77%
Ried 2+ goals
43%
Ried 3+ goals
19%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
70%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
33%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)
59%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.33 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Ried defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ried scores more
44%
level
26%
Austria Lustenau scores more
30%

Ried at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
T. PlavotićRiedRied · D
8.2

Match Events

20'
J. Wießmeier↳ T. Plavotić
31'
Michael Martin
56'
L. Fridrikas← C. Türkmen
62'
D. Cosgun← L. Mikić
71'
Pius Grabher
79'
B. Beganovic← C. Monschein
79'
J. Stefanon← M. Cheukoua
79'
D. Grujčić← H. Guenouche
79'
F. Gmeiner← Anderson
86'
J. Weberbauer← J. Wießmeier

Possession

51%Ried

Shots

13Ried

Pass accuracy

50%Ried

Statistics

RiedAustria
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots15
4Corners9
14Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots15
3On Target4
5Off Target9
5Blocked2
5Inside Box7
8Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
392Total Passes361
302Accurate Passes282
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Bundesliga: Ried 1–0 Austria Lustenau

Ried beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 in Bundesliga on July 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Wießmeier (20').

Ried controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.