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Riadi Salmi vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
4/4/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Riadi Salmi49%
×Draw29%
Mouloudia Oujda22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.28
Mouloudia Oujda
0.74

Riadi Salmi creates 73% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.14
Mouloudia Oujda
0.90

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
0.59
Mouloudia Oujda
1.43

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
78%
Riadi Salmi or Mouloudia Oujda
71%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
51%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
23%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
72%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
37%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
14%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
52%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
17%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
70%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.59 · 59 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.14 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.90 + Riadi Salmi defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
49%
level
29%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
22%

Riadi Salmi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Riadi Salmi 1–1 Mouloudia Oujda

Riadi Salmi and Mouloudia Oujda drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.