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Mouloudia Oujda vs Riadi Salmi — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
A. Souane 51'
B. Gaddarine 37' (pen)
C. Faidi 32'
M. El Khaloui 77'
Y. Limouri 25'
12/16/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 12Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%
×Draw28%
Riadi Salmi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.30
Riadi Salmi
1.07

Mouloudia Oujda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 61 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Riadi Salmi
0.97

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.18
Riadi Salmi
1.44

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
69%
Mouloudia Oujda or Riadi Salmi
72%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
19%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
73%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
37%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
14%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
66%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
29%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
58%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
42%
level
28%
Riadi Salmi scores more
31%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Y. Limouri
32'
C. Faidi
37'
B. GaddarinePenalty
51'
A. Souane
58'
M. El Khaloui← H. Rahimi
58'
S. El Bouchqali← M. Sohna
77'
M. El Khaloui
80'
Amine Souane
80'
C. Knaidil← M. Erbibi
80'
H. Beloued← A. Hasti
82'
Chams Eddine Knaidil
83'
Y. El Filali← A. Nouader
88'
A. Bentagana← Y. Sakhi
89'
Z. Hamadi← H. Dahmani

Statistics

MouloudiaRiadi
Overview
11Corners3
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Riadi Salmi

Mouloudia Oujda beat Riadi Salmi 3-2 in Botola Pro on December 16, 2023.

Goals: Y. Limouri (25'), C. Faidi (32'), B. Gaddarine (37' pen), A. Souane (51'), M. El Khaloui (77').

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda in Oujda.