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Mouloudia Oujda vs Riadi Salmi — Botola 2 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
11/1/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 6Honneur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda41%
×Draw29%
Riadi Salmi30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.18
Riadi Salmi
0.97

Mouloudia Oujda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.10
Riadi Salmi
1.03

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
0.90
Riadi Salmi
1.25

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
70%
Mouloudia Oujda or Riadi Salmi
71%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
59%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
17%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
69%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
33%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
12%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
62%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
25%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
58%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
41%
level
29%
Riadi Salmi scores more
30%

Mouloudia Oujda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Riadi Salmi

Mouloudia Oujda and Riadi Salmi drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Honneur Stadium in Oujda.