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Rēzekne FA vs Jēkabpils — 1. Liga 2026

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
CANC
00:00
Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
8/19/20171. Liga1. Liga · Round 16OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums (Rēzekne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rēzekne FA55%
×Draw18%
Jēkabpils27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rēzekne FA
2.89
Jēkabpils
2.04

Rēzekne FA creates 42% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rēzekne FA
1.78
Jēkabpils
2.00

allows per match

Rēzekne FA
2.08
Jēkabpils
4.00

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par
Jēkabpils+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

Jēkabpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw
73%
Rēzekne FA or Jēkabpils
82%
Draw or Jēkabpils
45%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
36%
Jēkabpils wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
94%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
78%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
54%
Jēkabpils 1+ goals
87%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
60%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
67%
Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.08 · 90 matches

Jēkabpils away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 1.78 + Jēkabpils defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.89

Jēkabpils attack 2.00 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more
55%
level
18%
Jēkabpils scores more
27%

Rēzekne FA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rēzekne FA host Jēkabpils

August 19, 2017: Rēzekne FA take on Jēkabpils in 1. Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rēzekne FA host Jēkabpils at OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums (Rēzekne).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.