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Jēkabpils vs Rēzekne FA — Cup 2020

Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
FT
0 – 3
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
I. Silakrankers 65' (OG)
M. Potlovs 4' (OG)
8/21/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundJēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jēkabpils26%
×Draw18%
Rēzekne FA56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jēkabpils
1.86
Rēzekne FA
2.73

Rēzekne FA creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jēkabpils
1.40
Rēzekne FA
2.67

allows per match

Jēkabpils
2.80
Rēzekne FA
2.33

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par
Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Rēzekne FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw
44%
Jēkabpils or Rēzekne FA
82%
Draw or Rēzekne FA
74%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+
13%
Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals
84%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
55%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
28%
Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
93%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
75%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
32%
Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.40 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rēzekne FA attack 2.67 + Jēkabpils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jēkabpils scores more
26%
level
18%
Rēzekne FA scores more
56%

Rēzekne FA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. PotlovsOwn goal
65'
I. SilakrankersOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jēkabpils vs Rēzekne FA

Rēzekne FA beat Jēkabpils 3-0 in Cup on August 21, 2020.

Goals: M. Potlovs (4' o.g.), I. Silakrankers (65' o.g.).

The match was played at Jēkabpils SC stadions in Jēkabpils.