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Jēkabpils vs Rēzekne FA — 1. Liga 2026

Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
FT
1 – 6
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
4/23/20161. Liga1. Liga · Round 4Jēkabpils SC stadions (Jēkabpils)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jēkabpils57%
×Draw19%
Rēzekne FA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jēkabpils
2.60
Rēzekne FA
1.69

Jēkabpils creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jēkabpils
2.14
Rēzekne FA
1.24

allows per match

Jēkabpils
2.14
Rēzekne FA
3.06

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par
Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Rēzekne FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw
75%
Jēkabpils or Rēzekne FA
81%
Draw or Rēzekne FA
43%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+
37%
Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals
92%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
73%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
47%
Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
82%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
50%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
70%
Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.24, concedes 3.06 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 2.14 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.60

Rēzekne FA attack 1.24 + Jēkabpils defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jēkabpils scores more
57%
level
19%
Rēzekne FA scores more
25%

Jēkabpils at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jēkabpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jēkabpils vs Rēzekne FA

Rēzekne FA beat Jēkabpils 6-1 in 1. Liga on April 23, 2016.

The match was played at Jēkabpils SC stadions (Jēkabpils).