Resovia Rzeszów 2–3 Górnik Łęczna: Result & Stats

Resovia Rzeszów

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Górnik Łęczna

R. Kanach 72'

A. Łyszczarz 67'

K. Łukasiak 43'

J. Tomal 11' (OG)

M. Roginić 1'

3/30/2024

I Liga · Round 25Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów37%

×Draw28%

Górnik Łęczna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Resovia RzeszówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Łęczna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.15

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

Górnik Łęczna

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

1.03

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.03

Górnik Łęczna

1.13

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów

1.18

Górnik Łęczna

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Górnik Łęczna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw

65%

Resovia Rzeszów or Górnik Łęczna

72%

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

63%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

15%

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

69%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

33%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

12%

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

32%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

51%

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

37%

level

28%

Górnik Łęczna scores more

35%

Resovia Rzeszów at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Roginić

11'

J. TomalOwn goal

43'

K. Łukasiak

46'

K. Ibe-Torti← B. Wasiluk

46'

K. Mazek← V. Zastavnyi

46'

R. Bąk← J. Tomal

58'

M. Roginic

66'

J. Bednarczyk

67'

M. Górski← M. Urynowicz

67'

A. Łyszczarz

72'

R. Kanach

74'

D. Dziwniel← M. Młyński

74'

D. Zbozień← K. Łukasiak

74'

E. Fazlagikj← P. Żyra

74'

P. Starzyński← D. Gąska

78'

R. Kanach

86'

B. Ciepiela← K. Osyra

90+1'

S. Rojek← İ. Durmuş

Resovia

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: J. Żukowskiego

46'▲K. Ibe-Torti←▼B. Wasiluk

46'▲K. Mazek←▼V. Zastavnyi

46'▲R. Bąk←▼J. Tomal

67'▲M. Górski←▼M. Urynowicz

86'▲B. Ciepiela←▼K. Osyra

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

Ibe-TortiMazekBąkGórskiCiepielaPindrochMikrutJarochBukhal

Manager: P. Staňo

74'▲D. Dziwniel←▼M. Młyński

74'▲D. Zbozień←▼K. Łukasiak

74'▲E. Fazlagikj←▼P. Żyra

74'▲P. Starzyński←▼D. Gąska

90+1'▲S. Rojek←▼İ. Durmuş

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

DziwnielZbozieńFazlagikjStarzyńskiRojekJanaszekPodlińskiSteszukWoźniak

Match Recap: Resovia Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna

Górnik Łęczna beat Resovia Rzeszów 3-2 in I Liga on March 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Roginić (1'), J. Tomal (11' o.g.), K. Łukasiak (43'), A. Łyszczarz (67'), R. Kanach (72').

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.

Resovia Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Resovia Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna