Górnik Łęczna 3–1 Resovia Rzeszów: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Resovia Rzeszów

E. Kryeziu 43' (pen)

A. Deja 38'

K. Podliński 33'

M. Bondarenko 90+1'

9/18/2023

I Liga · Round 8Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Górnik Łęczna46%

×Draw25%

Resovia Rzeszów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Górnik Łęczna

1.52

Resovia Rzeszów

1.15

Górnik Łęczna creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.35

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.35

Resovia Rzeszów

1.19

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.11

Resovia Rzeszów

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

71%

Górnik Łęczna or Resovia Rzeszów

75%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

54%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

23%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

45%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

20%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

68%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

32%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

61%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

46%

level

25%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

29%

Górnik Łęczna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

33'

35'

38'

42'

43'

E. KryeziuPenalty

66'

F. Janaszek← P. Starzyński

66'

B. Eizenchart← K. Ibe-Torti

66'

K. Mazek← A. Łyszczarz

66'

R. Adamski← D. Lempereur

76'

D. Dziwniel← P. Żyra

76'

M. Pawlik← K. Podliński

78'

R. Bąk← J. Tomal

78'

V. Zastavnyi← B. Ciepiela

82'

M. Grabowski

84'

F. Janaszek

86'

K. Turek← M. Grabowski

86'

K. Łukasiak← E. Kryeziu

90+1'

M. Bondarenko

Górnik

Resovia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Kryeziu

▼

Starzyńsk

⚽

▼

Podliński

Manager: I. Mamrot

66'▲F. Janaszek←▼P. Starzyński

76'▲D. Dziwniel←▼P. Żyra

76'▲M. Pawlik←▼K. Podliński

86'▲K. Turek←▼M. Grabowski

86'▲K. Łukasiak←▼E. Kryeziu

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

JanaszekDziwnielPawlikTurekŁukasiakBednarczykSteszukCisséWoźniak

Manager: M. Hajdo

66'▲B. Eizenchart←▼K. Ibe-Torti

66'▲K. Mazek←▼A. Łyszczarz

66'▲R. Adamski←▼D. Lempereur

78'▲R. Bąk←▼J. Tomal

78'▲V. Zastavnyi←▼B. Ciepiela

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

EizenchartMazekAdamskiBąkZastavnyiMikrutGliwa

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Resovia Rzeszów

Górnik Łęczna beat Resovia Rzeszów 3-1 in I Liga on September 18, 2023.

Goals: K. Podliński (33'), A. Deja (38'), E. Kryeziu (43' pen), M. Bondarenko (90+1').

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.

Górnik Łęczna vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Resovia Rzeszów