Rep. Of Ireland 1–0 Armenia: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Armenia

E. Ferguson 70'

10/14/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 8Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland51%

×Draw38%

Armenia11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.28

Rep. Of Ireland

0.93

Armenia

0.28

Rep. Of Ireland creates 232% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.86

creates per match

0.00

0.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.86

Armenia

0.00

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.57

Armenia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under88
Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No85
Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–030%

0–18%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–028%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

70%30%1.5

34%66%2.5

12%88%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

89%

Rep. Of Ireland or Armenia

62%

Draw or Armenia

49%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

20%

Armenia wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

61%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

24%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

7%

Armenia 1+ goals

24%

Armenia 2+ goals

3%

Armenia 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

82%

Armenia (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

7%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Armenia away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.86 + Armenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Armenia attack 0.00 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

51%

level

38%

Armenia scores more

11%

Rep. Of Ireland at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. Manning

Rep. Of Ireland · M

8.3

Match Events

46'

L. Zelarayan← Z. Shaghoyan

48'

Séamus Coleman

52'

Tigran Barseghyan

65'

T. Parrott← F. Ebosele

65'

C. Ogbene← S. Coleman

69'

Jayson Molumby

70'

E. Ferguson↳ W. Smallbone

71'

A. Miranyan← G. Ranos

71'

E. Grigoryan← N. Tiknizyan

78'

Ryan Manning

81'

J. Taylor← W. Smallbone

81'

A. Idah← E. Ferguson

81'

V. Bichakhchyan← E. Piloyan

83'

Jake O'Brien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Armenia

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots4

2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.11

6Corners0

12Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots4

6On Target1

8Off Target1

3Blocked2

15Inside Box1

2Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

459Total Passes502

377Accurate Passes405

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls6

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2