Armenia 2–1 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rep. Of Ireland

G. Ranos 51'

E. Spertsyan 45' (pen)

E. Ferguson 57'

9/9/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 6Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Armenia16%

×Draw22%

Rep. Of Ireland62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.88

Armenia

0.83

Rep. Of Ireland

1.88

Rep. Of Ireland creates 127% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

1.43

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Armenia

0.67

Rep. Of Ireland

1.43

allows per match

Armenia

2.33

Rep. Of Ireland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

38%

Armenia or Rep. Of Ireland

78%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

84%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

5%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

56%

Armenia 2+ goals

20%

Armenia 3+ goals

5%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

85%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

56%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

21%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 0.67 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.43 + Armenia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Armenia scores more

16%

level

22%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

62%

Rep. Of Ireland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rep. Of Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Spertsyan

Armenia · M

8.5

Match Events

45'

E. SpertsyanPenalty

46'

A. Idah← J. Taylor

46'

K. McAteer← C. Ogbene

51'

G. Ranos↳ N. Tiknizyan

57'

E. Ferguson↳ A. Idah

67'

V. Bichakhchyan← G. Ranos

70'

M. Johnston← F. Azaz

70'

K. Phillips← J. Cullen

79'

A. Serobyan← L. Zelarayan

79'

Z. Shaghoyan← T. Barseghyan

80'

Jason Knight

82'

L. Scales← R. Manning

90+9'

Kamo Hovhannisyan

90'

Artur SerobyanGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaRep.

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots8

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.86

1Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

8On Target5

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

427Total Passes393

352Accurate Passes304

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1