Armenia 1–0 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rep. Of Ireland

E. Spertsyan 74'

6/4/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 1Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia45%

×Draw25%

Rep. Of Ireland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Armenia

1.54

Rep. Of Ireland

1.20

Armenia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

0.73

1.67

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

Rep. Of Ireland

0.73

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

Rep. Of Ireland

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

70%

Armenia or Rep. Of Ireland

75%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

55%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

23%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

79%

Armenia 2+ goals

45%

Armenia 3+ goals

20%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

70%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

34%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

60%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Armenia scores more

45%

level

25%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

30%

Armenia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

H. Hambardzumyan

Armenia · D

8.0

Match Events

9'

Shane Duffy

56'

S. Adamyan← V. Bichakhchyan

61'

S. Mkrtchyan← A. Hovhannisyan

65'

M. Obafemi← T. Parrott

73'

J. McClean← E. Stevens

73'

J. Knight← C. Robinson

74'

81'

81'

83'

86'

89'

A. Dashyan← T. Barseghyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaRep.

Overview

32%Possession68%

10Total Shots13

2Corners6

6Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target2

5Off Target8

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

277Total Passes575

188Accurate Passes504

68%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1