Rennes 3–0 Montpellier: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Rennes

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Montpellier

A. Gouiri 85'

A. Kalimuendo 23'

M. Terrier 15'

10/30/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 13Roazhon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rennes43%

×Draw25%

Montpellier32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RennesExpected goals in this matchMontpellier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.33

Rennes

1.57

Montpellier

1.33

Rennes creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 6 away

1.54

creates per match

1.48

1.18

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rennes

1.54

Montpellier

1.48

allows per match

Rennes

1.18

Montpellier

1.60

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.85scores more than expected

finishing

Rennes-0.01on par

Montpellier+0.85scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rennes ↓

Montpellier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rennes or draw

68%

Rennes or Montpellier

75%

Draw or Montpellier

57%

Winning margin

Rennes wins by 2+

22%

Montpellier wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rennes 1+ goals

79%

Rennes 2+ goals

46%

Rennes 3+ goals

21%

Montpellier 1+ goals

74%

Montpellier 2+ goals

38%

Montpellier 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rennes (draw refunded)

57%

Montpellier (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rennes at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.18 · 32 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rennes attack 1.54 + Montpellier defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Montpellier attack 1.48 + Rennes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rennes scores more

43%

level

25%

Montpellier scores more

32%

Rennes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Terrier

Rennes · M

8.7

Match Events

15'

M. Terrier↳ L. Majer

23'

Nicolas Cozza

23'

A. Kalimuendo↳ B. Bourigeaud

64'

E. Tchato← A. Souquet

64'

V. Germain← A. Nordin

72'

Joris Chotard

72'

L. Leroy← J. Chotard

74'

L. Ugochukwu← Xeka

74'

F. Tait← A. Kalimuendo

81'

M. Sakho← E. Tchato

84'

Lovro Majer

85'

A. Gouiri↳ M. Terrier

87'

J. Doku← A. Gouiri

87'

M. Abline← B. Bourigeaud

88'

A. Truffert← B. Meling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RennesMontpellier

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots8

3Corners4

15Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

524Total Passes409

440Accurate Passes327

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5