Montpellier 2–1 Rennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rennes

S. Mavididi 27', 17'

S. Guirassy 78'

2/21/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier41%

×Draw23%

Rennes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchRennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.56

Montpellier

1.69

Rennes

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.92

creates per match

1.41

1.72

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Rennes

1.41

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Rennes

1.47

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Rennes+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Rennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

64%

Montpellier or Rennes

77%

Draw or Rennes

59%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

21%

Rennes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

82%

Montpellier 2+ goals

50%

Montpellier 3+ goals

24%

Rennes 1+ goals

79%

Rennes 2+ goals

46%

Rennes 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

54%

Rennes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Rennes away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Rennes defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rennes attack 1.41 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montpellier scores more

41%

level

23%

Rennes scores more

36%

Montpellier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Mavididi

Montpellier · M

8.7

Match Events

17'

S. Mavididi↳ T. Savanier

23'

Teji Savanier

27'

S. Mavididi

56'

J. Chotard← T. Savanier

62'

E. Camavinga← J. Martin

62'

C. Grenier← B. Bourigeaud

62'

F. Maouassa← A. Truffert

64'

Damien Da Silva

65'

G. Nyamsi← D. Da Silva

75'

A. Souquet← S. Wahi

78'

S. Guirassy↳ C. Grenier

81'

R. Del Castillo← M. Terrier

86'

P. Škuletić← S. Mavididi

89'

Faitout Maouassa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierRennes

Overview

34%Possession66%

12Total Shots14

3Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

7On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

319Total Passes594

243Accurate Passes525

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1