Montpellier 1–0 Rennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rennes

S. Mavididi 84'

4/23/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 32Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier41%

×Draw23%

Rennes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchRennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.56

Montpellier

1.69

Rennes

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.92

creates per match

1.41

1.72

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Rennes

1.41

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Rennes

1.47

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Rennes+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Rennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

64%

Montpellier or Rennes

77%

Draw or Rennes

59%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

21%

Rennes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

82%

Montpellier 2+ goals

50%

Montpellier 3+ goals

24%

Rennes 1+ goals

79%

Rennes 2+ goals

46%

Rennes 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

54%

Rennes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Rennes away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Rennes defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rennes attack 1.41 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montpellier scores more

41%

level

23%

Rennes scores more

36%

Montpellier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Bourigeaud

Rennes · M

7.7

Match Events

44'

47'

53'

55'

55'

56'

72'

72'

73'

B. Santamaría← L. Ugochukwu

74'

K. Toko Ekambi← A. Kalimuendo

78'

S. Mavididi← W. Khazri

80'

L. Majer← F. Tait

80'

I. Salah← J. Doku

84'

S. Mavididi↳ C. Jullien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierRennes

Overview

30%Possession70%

11Total Shots16

0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.16

4Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target4

4Off Target9

5Blocked3

3Inside Box9

8Outside Box7

Passing

30%Possession70%

260Total Passes598

193Accurate Passes531

74%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0