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Renaissance Berkane vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
5/7/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 26Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Renaissance Berkane49%
×Draw27%
Moghreb Tetouan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.45
Moghreb Tetouan
0.92

Renaissance Berkane creates 58% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
76%
Renaissance Berkane or Moghreb Tetouan
73%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
51%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
77%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
42%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
18%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
60%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
23%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
67%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
49%
level
27%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
24%

Renaissance Berkane at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Renaissance Berkane 3–2 Moghreb Tetouan

Renaissance Berkane beat Moghreb Tetouan 3-2 in Botola Pro on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.