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Moghreb Tetouan vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
6/22/2025CupCup · Semi-finalsComplexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan9%
×Draw28%
Renaissance Berkane62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
0.34
Renaissance Berkane
1.33

Renaissance Berkane creates 291% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.67
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.00
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–125%
0–217%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
38%
Moghreb Tetouan or Renaissance Berkane
72%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
91%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
1%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
29%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
5%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
1%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
74%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
38%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
13%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.67 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.34

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
9%
level
28%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
62%

Renaissance Berkane at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moghreb Tetouan vs Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Moghreb Tetouan 3-0 in Cup on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Fès in Fès.