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Moghreb Tetouan vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
3/9/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan34%
×Draw31%
Renaissance Berkane35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Renaissance Berkane
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Renaissance Berkane
0.88

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
65%
Moghreb Tetouan or Renaissance Berkane
69%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
66%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
13%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
62%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
26%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
8%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
63%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
26%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
49%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
34%
level
31%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
35%

Renaissance Berkane at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 0–2 Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Moghreb Tetouan 2-0 in Botola Pro on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.