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Renaissance Berkane vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
1 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
5/1/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 26Stade Municipal de Berkane (Berkane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Renaissance Berkane51%
×Draw27%
Kawkab Marrakech22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.43
Kawkab Marrakech
0.85

Renaissance Berkane creates 68% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 33 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.53
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.92
Kawkab Marrakech
1.33

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
78%
Renaissance Berkane or Kawkab Marrakech
73%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
49%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
76%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
42%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
17%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
57%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
21%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
69%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.53 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
51%
level
27%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
22%

Renaissance Berkane at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Amadou SamakePenalty
90'
Issoufou Dayo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Renaissance Berkane 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech

Renaissance Berkane and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 1, 2019.

Goals: Amadou Samake (15' pen), Issoufou Dayo (90').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane (Berkane).