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Kawkab Marrakech vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
I. Dayo 78'
Y. Mehri 22', 3'
6/1/2025CupCup · 8th FinalsStade El Harti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech22%
×Draw26%
Renaissance Berkane52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
0.90
Renaissance Berkane
1.53

Renaissance Berkane creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.80
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.40
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
48%
Kawkab Marrakech or Renaissance Berkane
74%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
78%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
7%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
59%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
23%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
6%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
78%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
45%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
30%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.80 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
22%
level
26%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
52%

Renaissance Berkane at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Y. Mehri
22'
Y. Mehri
78'
I. Dayo
87'
A. Tahif
87'
A. Tahif

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kawkab Marrakech 0–3 Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Kawkab Marrakech 3-0 in Cup on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Y. Mehri (3', 22'), I. Dayo (78').

The match was played at Stade El Harti in Marrakech.