Kawkab Marrakech vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Kawkab Marrakech36%
Renaissance Berkane34%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 30 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kawkab Marrakech ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches
Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.30 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08
Renaissance Berkane attack 1.03 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Kawkab Marrakech at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wydad AC
Raja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL JadidaRenaissance Berkane
FUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique KhouribgaKawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kawkab Marrakech host Renaissance Berkane on Tuesday, 16 September 2025 at 19:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola Pro on September 16, 2025.
Goals: O. Lamlioui (3' pen), Y. Mehri (78'), S. Cisse (90').
The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.