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Renaissance Berkane vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
4/18/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsStade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Renaissance Berkane56%
×Draw27%
FAR Rabat17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.43
FAR Rabat
0.66

Renaissance Berkane creates 117% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.86
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.43
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
83%
Renaissance Berkane or FAR Rabat
73%
Draw or FAR Rabat
44%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
28%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
76%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
42%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
17%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
48%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
14%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
76%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.86 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
56%
level
27%
FAR Rabat scores more
17%

Renaissance Berkane at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs FAR Rabat

Renaissance Berkane beat FAR Rabat 1-0 in CAF Champions League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.