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FAR Rabat vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkaneadvanced
Z. Ajoughlal 120+7' (pen)
A. Bach 120+6' (pen)
J. Beya 120+5' (pen)
E. T. Boukhriss 120+4' (pen)
H. Essaouabi 120+2' (pen)
A. Zouhzouh 120+1' (pen)
A. Hadraf 34'
A. Assal 120+8' (pen)
Y. Zghoudi 120+7' (pen)
A. Tahif 120+6' (pen)
M. El Morabit 120+4' (pen)
H. El Moussaoui 120+3' (pen)
I. Riahi 120+2' (pen)
Y. Labhiri 120+1' (pen)
I. Dayo 58'
6/15/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FAR Rabat24%
×Draw28%
Renaissance Berkane48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
0.85
Renaissance Berkane
1.33

Renaissance Berkane creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.71
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

FAR Rabat
1.00
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
52%
FAR Rabat or Renaissance Berkane
72%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
76%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
8%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
57%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
21%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
5%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
74%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
38%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
33%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.71 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
24%
level
28%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
48%

Renaissance Berkane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Hadraf
58'
I. Dayo
120+1'
Y. LabhiriPenalty
120+1'
A. ZouhzouhPenalty
120+2'
I. RiahiPenalty
120+2'
H. EssaouabiPenalty
120+3'
H. El MoussaouiPenalty
120+3'
M. HrimatMissed penalty
120+4'
M. El MorabitPenalty
120+4'
E. T. BoukhrissPenalty
120+5'
I. DayoMissed penalty
120+5'
J. BeyaPenalty
120+6'
A. TahifPenalty
120+6'
A. BachPenalty
120+7'
Y. ZghoudiPenalty
120+7'
Z. AjoughlalPenalty
120+8'
A. AssalPenalty
120+8'
Z. DerragMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FAR Rabat 1–1 Renaissance Berkane

FAR Rabat and Renaissance Berkane drew 1-1 in Cup on June 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Hadraf (34'), I. Dayo (58'), Y. Labhiri (120+1' pen), A. Zouhzouh (120+1' pen), I. Riahi (120+2' pen), H. Essaouabi (120+2' pen), H. El Moussaoui (120+3' pen), M. El Morabit (120+4' pen), E. T. Boukhriss (120+4' pen), J. Beya (120+5' pen), A. Tahif (120+6' pen), A. Bach (120+6' pen), Y. Zghoudi (120+7' pen), Z. Ajoughlal (120+7' pen), A. Assal (120+8' pen).

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.