FAR Rabat 2–0 Renaissance Berkane: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renaissance Berkane

K. Ouarkhane Alt 80'

A. Hammoudan 58'

4/11/2026

CAF Champions League · Semi-finalsStade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FAR Rabat63%

×Draw24%

Renaissance Berkane13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchRenaissance Berkane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.60

FAR Rabat

1.65

Renaissance Berkane

0.60

FAR Rabat creates 175% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

0.71

0.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Renaissance Berkane

0.71

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Renaissance Berkane

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Renaissance Berkane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

87%

FAR Rabat or Renaissance Berkane

76%

Draw or Renaissance Berkane

37%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

35%

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

81%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

49%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

23%

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

45%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

12%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

83%

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Renaissance Berkane defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Renaissance Berkane attack 0.71 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

63%

level

24%

Renaissance Berkane scores more

13%

FAR Rabat at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Louadni

FAR Rabat · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Ahmed Hammoudan

46'

P. Bassene← Y. El Kaabi

51'

Ayoub Khairi

53'

Anas Bach

58'

A. Hammoudan

61'

K. Ouarkhane Alt← N. Mbemba

68'

R. Aabid← Y. Labhiri

76'

M. Bouriga← A. Hammoudan

77'

Z. Machach← Y. Mehri

80'

K. Ouarkhane Alt

85'

M. El Morabit← I. Riahi

87'

Reda Slim

88'

J. Ech Chamakh← R. Slim

89'

Y. Abdelhamid← A. Hadraf

90+6'

Jamal Ech-Chammakh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FARRenaissance

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots6

0.80Expected Goals (xG)0.12

9Corners4

17Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target0

6Off Target6

2Blocked0

9Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

442Total Passes435

387Accurate Passes356

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.04Goals Prevented-0.04

Discipline

17Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

6Offsides0