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Renaissance Berkane vs FAR Rabat — Cup 2020

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
A. El Maswab 120+7' (pen)
O. Arjoune 120+6' (pen)
I. Dayo 120+5' (pen)
A. Assal 120+4' (pen)
H. El Moussaoui 120+3' (pen)
Y. Zghoudi 120+2' (pen)
Y. El Fahli 120+1' (pen), 62'
D. Ouattara 89'
E. Imanishimwe 120+8' (pen)
Unknown 120+7' (pen)
T. Orebonye 120+6' (pen), 69'
A. Zouhzouh 120+5' (pen)
E. Boukhriss 120+4' (pen)
M. Hrimat 120+3' (pen), 58' (pen)
Z. Marour 120+2' (pen)
A. Tarkhatt 120+1' (pen)
5/2/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Renaissance Berkane56%
×Draw24%
FAR Rabat20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.71
FAR Rabat
0.92

Renaissance Berkane creates 86% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
2.67
FAR Rabat
1.50

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.33
FAR Rabat
0.75

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
80%
Renaissance Berkane or FAR Rabat
76%
Draw or FAR Rabat
44%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
31%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
82%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
51%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
24%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
60%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
23%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
73%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 2.67 + FAR Rabat defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

FAR Rabat attack 1.50 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
56%
level
24%
FAR Rabat scores more
20%

Renaissance Berkane at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
M. HrimatPenalty
62'
Y. El Fahli
69'
T. Orebonye
89'
D. Ouattara
120+1'
A. TarkhattPenalty
120+1'
Y. El FahliPenalty
120+2'
Z. MarourPenalty
120+2'
Y. ZghoudiPenalty
120+3'
M. HrimatPenalty
120+3'
H. El MoussaouiPenalty
120+4'
E. BoukhrissPenalty
120+4'
A. AssalPenalty
120+5'
A. ZouhzouhPenalty
120+5'
I. DayoPenalty
120+6'
T. OrebonyePenalty
120+6'
O. ArjounePenalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
A. El MaswabPenalty
120+8'
E. ImanishimwePenalty
120+8'
D. OuattaraMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renaissance Berkane 2 – 2 FAR Rabat

Renaissance Berkane and FAR Rabat drew 2-2 in Cup on May 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Hrimat (58' pen, 120+3' pen), Y. El Fahli (62', 120+1' pen), T. Orebonye (69', 120+6' pen), D. Ouattara (89'), A. Tarkhatt (120+1' pen), Z. Marour (120+2' pen), Y. Zghoudi (120+2' pen), H. El Moussaoui (120+3' pen), E. Boukhriss (120+4' pen), A. Assal (120+4' pen), A. Zouhzouh (120+5' pen), I. Dayo (120+5' pen), O. Arjoune (120+6' pen), ? (120+7' pen), A. El Maswab (120+7' pen), E. Imanishimwe (120+8' pen).

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.