Renaissance Berkane 1–2 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats

Renaissance Berkane

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FAR Rabat

3/6/2024

Botola Pro · Round 20Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane38%

×Draw28%

FAR Rabat35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renaissance BerkaneExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Renaissance Berkane

1.23

FAR Rabat

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.54

creates per match

1.40

0.94

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane

1.54

FAR Rabat

1.40

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane

0.94

FAR Rabat

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw

65%

Renaissance Berkane or FAR Rabat

72%

Draw or FAR Rabat

62%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

16%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

71%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

35%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

13%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

69%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

33%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

52%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more

38%

level

28%

FAR Rabat scores more

35%

Renaissance Berkane at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff