Remo 2–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Remo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Avai

Pedro Rocha 45' (pen)

Matheus Davo 29'

Emerson Negueba 3'

7/25/2025

Serie B · Round 18Estadio Olimpico do Para

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Remo36%

×Draw29%

Avai36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RemoExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Remo

1.14

Avai

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

0.97

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Remo

0.97

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Remo

1.25

Avai

1.31

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Remo+0.74scores more

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Remo or draw

64%

Remo or Avai

71%

Draw or Avai

64%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+

15%

Avai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals

68%

Remo 2+ goals

32%

Remo 3+ goals

11%

Avai 1+ goals

68%

Avai 2+ goals

32%

Avai 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)

50%

Avai (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.97 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Avai attack 1.02 + Remo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Remo scores more

36%

level

29%

Avai scores more

36%

Remo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Pedro Rocha

Remo · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

Emerson Negueba

6'

Pedro Rocha

29'

Matheus Davo↳ Caio Vinicius

43'

Pedro RochaPenalty confirmed

45'

Pedro RochaPenalty

46'

A. F. Rodriguez Armoa← Savio

62'

JP← Joao Vitor

63'

Regis← Marrony

63'

Janderson← Jaderson

70'

JP

72'

Víctor Cantillo

73'

Nathan Camargo← V. Cantillo

75'

Leo Reis← Emerson Negueba

76'

Mendes← Ze Ricardo

76'

Alef Manga← Hygor

79'

Jonathan Costa

83'

Rigley← Cleber

86'

Giovanni Pavani← Matheus Davo

90+2'

Giovanni Confreste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RemoAvai

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots17

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.99

7Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots17

7On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box10

Passing

50%Possession50%

400Total Passes411

338Accurate Passes343

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Remo vs Avai

Remo beat Avai 2-1 in Serie B on July 25, 2025.

Goals: Emerson Negueba (3'), Matheus Davo (29'), Pedro Rocha (45' pen).

Remo controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico do Para in Belem.

Remo vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Remo vs Avai