Remo 2–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Remo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Avai

Alemão 72' (OG)

Victor Andrade 44'

Edílson 60'

9/17/2021

Serie B · Round 24Estádio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Remo36%

×Draw29%

Avai36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RemoExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Remo

1.14

Avai

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

0.97

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Remo

0.97

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Remo

1.25

Avai

1.31

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Remo+0.74scores more

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Remo or draw

64%

Remo or Avai

71%

Draw or Avai

64%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+

15%

Avai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals

68%

Remo 2+ goals

32%

Remo 3+ goals

11%

Avai 1+ goals

68%

Avai 2+ goals

32%

Avai 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)

50%

Avai (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.97 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Avai attack 1.02 + Remo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Remo scores more

36%

level

29%

Avai scores more

36%

Remo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Matheus Oliveira

Remo · M

7.5

Match Events

14'

Alemao

36'

Edilson

42'

Marcos Junior

44'

Victor Andrade↳ Matheus Oliveira

60'

Edílson

62'

Pingo← Marcos Júnior

63'

Lucas Tocantins← Victor Andrade

67'

Renato← Getúlio

67'

Rômulo← Vinícius Leite

72'

Rafinha← Matheus Oliveira

72'

AlemãoOwn goal

73'

Romércio← Arthur Santos

73'

Renan Gorne← Felipe Gedoz

75'

77'

77'

82'

87'

87'

87'

Diego Renan← João Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RemoAvai

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots12

8Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

339Total Passes427

272Accurate Passes354

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie B: Remo 2–1 Avai

Remo beat Avai 2-1 in Serie B on September 17, 2021.

Goals: Victor Andrade (44'), Edílson (60'), Alemão (72' o.g.).

Avai controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Evandro Almeida in Belém, Pará.

Remo vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Remo 2–1 Avai