Avai 3–1 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Remo

Leo Reis 81'

Cleber 49', 37' (pen)

Joao Pedro 71'

11/15/2025

Serie B · Round 37Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Avai42%

×Draw28%

Remo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Avai

1.31

Remo

1.06

Avai creates 24% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Avai

1.26

Remo

1.18

allows per match

Avai

0.95

Remo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avai+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avai or draw

70%

Avai or Remo

72%

Draw or Remo

58%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

19%

Remo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

73%

Avai 2+ goals

38%

Avai 3+ goals

14%

Remo 1+ goals

65%

Remo 2+ goals

29%

Remo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

58%

Remo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 115 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.26 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Remo attack 1.18 + Avai defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avai scores more

42%

level

28%

Remo scores more

30%

Avai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Cleber

Avai · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

-5'

-5'

6'

26'

Freitas← Pedro Castro

37'

CleberPenalty

45+2'

Zé Ricardo

49'

Cleber↳ Thayllon

58'

Railan← Marcos Vinicius

60'

Nathan← P. Tachtsidis

60'

Marrony← Nathan Camargo

60'

Joao Pedro← Jorge

67'

V. Cantillo← Caio Vinicius

71'

Joao Pedro↳ Pedro Rocha

73'

Joao Vitor← JP

73'

J. S. Miranda← Thayllon

80'

Leo Reis← Emerson Negueba

80'

DG← Cleber

81'

Leo Reis↳ J. S. Miranda

83'

90+21'

90+17'

90+18'

90+17'

90+21'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiRemo

Overview

33%Possession67%

13Total Shots21

4Corners12

16Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots21

6On Target5

6Off Target5

1Blocked11

11Inside Box8

2Outside Box13

Passing

33%Possession67%

254Total Passes509

179Accurate Passes437

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Red Cards2

4Offsides1

Avai 3 – 1 Remo

Avai beat Remo 3-1 in Serie B on November 15, 2025.

Goals: Cleber (37' pen, 49'), Joao Pedro (71'), Leo Reis (81').

Remo controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ressacada in Florianópolis.

Avai vs Remo — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Avai 3 – 1 Remo