Rekord Bielsko-Biała 0–0 Polonia Bytom

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polonia Bytom

3/8/2025

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała34%

×Draw27%

Polonia Bytom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.32

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.21

Polonia Bytom

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.15

creates per match

1.26

1.38

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.15

Polonia Bytom

1.26

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.38

Polonia Bytom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

61%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Polonia Bytom

73%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

66%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

14%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

70%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

34%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

12%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

73%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

38%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

46%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

34%

level

27%

Polonia Bytom scores more

39%

Polonia Bytom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff