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Polonia Bytom vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polonia Bytom39%
×Draw24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.52
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
1.53
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.90

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
2.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.50

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
64%
Polonia Bytom or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
76%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
61%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
19%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
20%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
77%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
42%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
52%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.53 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 0.90 + Polonia Bytom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
39%
level
24%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
36%

Polonia Bytom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Polonia Bytom 2–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Polonia Bytom and Rekord Bielsko-Biała drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.