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Polonia Bytom vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
8/11/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Polonia Bytom52%
×Draw22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.02
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.38

Polonia Bytom creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.61

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.67

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
74%
Polonia Bytom or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
78%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
48%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
30%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
60%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
33%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
75%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
40%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
67%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
52%
level
22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
26%

Polonia Bytom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Polonia Bytom beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 5-1 in II Liga - East on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.