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Reims vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Reims
Reims
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Grenoble
Grenoble
A. Kone 87'
K. Nakamura 35'
E. Maurin 80'
M. Xantippe 72'
G. Paquiez 28'
Y. Diaby 6'
10/4/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims51%
×Draw26%
Grenoble23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reims
1.53
Grenoble
0.92

Reims creates 66% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 138 away

creates per match

Reims
1.73
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

Reims
0.90
Grenoble
1.33

finishing

Reims+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Reims or draw
77%
Reims or Grenoble
74%
Draw or Grenoble
49%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+
27%
Grenoble wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals
78%
Reims 2+ goals
45%
Reims 3+ goals
20%
Grenoble 1+ goals
60%
Grenoble 2+ goals
23%
Grenoble 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)
69%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Grenoble defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reims scores more
51%
level
26%
Grenoble scores more
23%

Reims at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
M. XantippeGrenobleGrenoble · D
7.9

Match Events

6'
Y. Diaby↳ T. Valls
28'
G. Paquiez
33'
Teddy Teuma
35'
K. Nakamura↳ A. Salama
63'
H. Ibrahim← A. Salama
64'
A. Kone← M. Gbane
66'
M. Bangre← H. Mbock
67'
E. Maurin← Y. Diaby
72'
M. Xantippe
75'
N. Zahui← M. Xantippe
76'
M. Daramy← A. Leautey
80'
E. Maurin↳ N. Elphege
82'
Zabi← N. Bassette
87'
A. Kone↳ T. Teuma
89'
M. Djitte← N. Elphege

Possession

63%Reims

Shots

21Reims

Pass accuracy

55%Reims

Statistics

ReimsGrenoble
Overview
63%Possession37%
21Total Shots6
7Corners0
8Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots6
8On Target4
6Off Target2
7Blocked0
14Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
536Total Passes321
456Accurate Passes224
85%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Reims vs Grenoble

Grenoble beat Reims 4-2 in Ligue 2 on October 4, 2025.

Goals: Y. Diaby (6'), G. Paquiez (28'), K. Nakamura (35'), M. Xantippe (72'), E. Maurin (80'), A. Kone (87').

Reims controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims.