Reims 4–1 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Reims

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Grenoble

L. Deaux 89'

J. Toudic 22', 4'

G. Krychowiak 18'

S. Taider 31' (pen)

10/22/2010

Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade Auguste-Delaune II (Reims)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims51%

×Draw26%

Grenoble23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Reims

1.53

Grenoble

0.92

Reims creates 66% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 138 away

1.73

creates per match

0.94

0.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Reims

1.73

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Reims

0.90

Grenoble

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reims or draw

77%

Reims or Grenoble

74%

Draw or Grenoble

49%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

27%

Grenoble wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

78%

Reims 2+ goals

45%

Reims 3+ goals

20%

Grenoble 1+ goals

60%

Grenoble 2+ goals

23%

Grenoble 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

69%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Grenoble defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reims scores more

51%

level

26%

Grenoble scores more

23%

Reims at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Toudic

18'

G. Krychowiak

22'

J. Toudic

31'

S. TaiderPenalty

46'

J. Mandrichi← M. Bourabia

46'

Y. Ravet← H. Dos Reis

59'

A. Barbier← L. Aubey

70'

J. Kodjia← C. Fauré

77'

L. Deaux← F. Ghisolfi

81'

M. Perez← H. Cianci

89'

L. Deaux

Reims

Grenoble

1

13

21

17

25

▼

Cianci

7

Dieuze

27

▼

Bourabia

8

⚽

Taider

20

Ayari

23

▼

Reis

11

Lasimant

1

Liébus

12

▼

22

14

29

24

▼

Ghisolfi

10

Ramare

7

Fortes

4

⚽

Krychowia

20

⚽2

Toudic

9

▼

Fauré

59'▲A. Barbier←▼L. Aubey

70'▲J. Kodjia←▼C. Fauré

77'▲L. Deaux←▼F. Ghisolfi

Reims substitutes

19Barbier11Kodjia13Deaux16Agassa23Amalfitano

46'▲J. Mandrichi←▼M. Bourabia

46'▲Y. Ravet←▼H. Dos Reis

81'▲M. Perez←▼H. Cianci

Grenoble substitutes

15Mandrichi10Ravet33Perez5Turan16Maubleu